000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO 04N85W. THE ITCZ FORMS AT 01N109W AND WIGGLES W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 05.5N85W...05N93W...05.5N115.5W AND 02N132W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W SSE TO 23N118W TO 12N117W AND TO 01N112W. DIVERGENCE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF SMALL CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 115W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...AND IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 117W-126W...AND ALSO N OF 17N E OF 117W. DEBRIS MOISTURE CLOUDS...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD IN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW NOTED E OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE THINS OUT AS IT APPROACHES 98W WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. BEGINNING AT 98W...AND NEWD FROM THERE IS WHERE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN S AMERICA. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG 06N...WHICH IS IN PHASE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE. ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF 06N E OF 91W IS WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE NOTED TO FLARE UP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONE LARGE CLUSTER...ABOUT 2.5 DEG IN DIAMETER...IS JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 06N78W. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES COVERS THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA S OF 25N AND W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA FROM DEEP CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICS OVER THE NORTHERN CREST OF THIS RIDGE 24N140W... AND STRETCHES SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A WIND MAX WITH SPEEDS OF 90-150 KT IS INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM BRANCH. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 30N125W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING 32N140W TO ADVANCE E...BUT ONLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SW TO W AND TO NW WIND SHIFT. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 32N140W ON THU AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM 32N133W TO 26N135W ON FRI AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY W TO NW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS WHICH WILL DRIVE UP THE COMBINED SEAS TO 8 TO 13 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION ON FRI. THE LARGE SWELLS GENERATED IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL MERGE COVERING THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W ON THU WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHIFT W COVERING THE WATERS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 117W BY LATE FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM SRN TEXAS TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADEINT JUST INLAND SE MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...N WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 30 TO 40 KT...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 12-18 FT. THE LATEST SEA SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD TONGUE OF TEMPERATURES FROM THE SW PART OF THE GULF SSE TO 13.5N95W AND BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A MINIMAL GALE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK THU THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT THU AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER N SURGE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY ON FRI. ONE LAST NORTHERLY SURGE...BUT AT ONLY 10 TO 15 KT IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO MID MORNING ON SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING AS FAR W AS 10N88W. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT EXTENDING TO NEAR 09N90W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO JUST E OF 90W BY LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN LOWER SLIGHTLY THU. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI WITH BRIEF SURGES OF HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. $$ AGUIRRE