000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251033 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAR 25 2013 UPDATED CONVECTION UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. A WEAK ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N85W TO 03N93W WHERE IT ENDS. IT RESUMES AT 02N108W TO 01N120W TO 02N131W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N112W SW TO AN UPPER LOW AT 23N120W AND CONTINUES SSE TO THE EQUATOR AT 119W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. BROAD SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE EWD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LOW AND FLATTEN OUT LEADING TO A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND IT ACROSS MOST OF BASIN N OF ABOUT 12N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA E OF 130W. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA...EXCEPT E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH FROM 20N TO 27N WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD TOWARDS TO CENTRAL AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE CLOUDS. ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SEEN AS BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING EWD INTO THE AREA OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION. THESE CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING ONCE THEY REACH 130W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BECOMES NOTICEABLE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE AT 09N92W IS OBSERVED THERE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY DEEP CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP. A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 30N141W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS THROUGH WED WHILE WEAKENING. BESIDES A WIND SHIFT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FROM IT. A POST-FRONTAL WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CORNER WED EVENING...BUT IT ALSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS ALLOWING FOR RATHER LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. GAP WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MEXICO DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SE THROUGH THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS INDUCING STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS... AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS NOTED BY THE PRECEDING ARC CLOUD FEATURE CURRENTLY PROPAGATING SW AWAY FROM THE GULF. N WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 35 KT TONIGHT...AND TO 40 KT OVERNIGHT ON TUE AS COLD DENSE AIR ATTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH PRES SURGES S THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 12 FT BY LATE TONIGHT... AND TO 16 FT BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATE WED INTO THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH LATE THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE