000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC MON MAR 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 03N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A 
SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP S OF THE 
EQUATOR.  

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE 
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER 
DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION. SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 03N83W TO 03N91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
LOCATED UNDER MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW...WHICH IS ADVECTING SOME 
BLOW OFF CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.

THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE MON...WITH WINDS LIKELY 
REACHING GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS GLOBAL 
MODEL INDICATES WINDS OF 30-35 KT LATE MON NIGHT INCREASING TO 
35-40 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES 
SHOW A MAXIMUM. EXCEPT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-16 FT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS GULF. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 
AT 26/0600 UTC. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH PRES GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT. NLY FLOW WILL THEN FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SPREADING SE...S AND SW. 

W OF 110W...A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA AT 
35N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 
20N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE N WATERS AS 
HIGH PRES APPROACHES TO THE FORECAST REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 20N UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT   
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS AND NOW ARE 8-9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL N 
OF 21N BETWEEN 116W AND 128W...AND W OF LINE FROM 21N116W TO 
16N124W TO 04N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH MODEL 
GUIDANCES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HRS.

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
MON MORNING WITH LITTLE IMPACT....AN WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE 
ACROSS THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT.

$$
GR