000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1605 UTC SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
ITCZ AXIS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W TO 00N118W TO 01N140W.  
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO WEAKENING
CYCLONE AT 22N124.  MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE CYCLONE OPENS INTO
SHORTWAVE AND MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MON LEAVING A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND IT ACROSS MOST OF BASIN N OF 12N.  LACK OF
MOISTURE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WITH NO
UPLIFTING MECHANISMS BASICALLY KEEPS A DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS ACROSS E PAC. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST ALONG 144W ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE RIDING IN 75 KT JET CORE CURRENTLY JUST ENTERING NW 
CORNER OF BASIN.  GUIDANCE SHOW RIDGE CREST FLATTENS OUT AS
STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONE MOVES SE EXTENDING THE ZONAL PATTERN
FURTHER W. 

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY W OF BASIN APPROACHES 32N140W LATE MON
BUT CARRIES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS IT CRASHES INTO WELL
ANCHORED HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB NEAR 28N136W.  FRONT SOON 
STALLS AND NEEDS REINFORCING PUSH FROM SECOND FRONT APPROACHING
REGION WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD TO PUSH E ALONG NORTHERN
LATITUDES WITH LITTLE ELSE THAN FRESH NW WINDS.  

DEVELOPING GALE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12
FT EXPECTED AS COLD FRONT CROSSES GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS N 
WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS.

...OUTLOOK...
COLD FRONT ENTERING BASIN DOES LITTLE MORE THAN VEER MODERATE
BREEZE TO THE NW AS IT STALLS NEAR NW CORNER.  REINFORCING PUSH
WED MOVES FRONT E WHILE N OF 20N BRINGING FRESH NW WINDS BRIEFLY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU. 

$$
WALLY BARNES