000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240247
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS ARE VERY WEAK AND THEY ARE 
NOT DISCERNIBLE ON THE 0000 UTC MAP. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS 
TIME OF THE YEAR A SECOND ITCZ IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. 
TWO DISTINCT INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES ARE SOMETIMES 
PRESENT IN SPRING...ESPECIALLY DURING LA NINA EVENTS WHEN THE 
COLD EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGER. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH A LIGHT TO GENTLE 
BREEZE AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER 
DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION. 

THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE MON...WITH WINDS LIKELY 
REACHING GALE FORCE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE GFS GLOBAL 
MODEL INDICATES WINDS OF 30-35 KT LATE MON NIGHT INCREASING TO 
35-40 KT LATE TUE NIGHT...WHEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES 
SHOW A MAXIMUM. EXCEPT BUILDING SEAS OF 14-16 FT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS GULF. A GALE WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

W OF 110W...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA AT 
39N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO NEAR 
20N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE N WATERS...AND 
WINDS THERE ARE NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT PER THE MOST RECENT OSCAT 
PASS. WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE MAINLY NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE W OF 130W. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT IN NW TO N 
SWELL N OF 20N W OF 115W...AND 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL W 
OF A LINE FROM 20N129W TO 07N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY 
WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY 36 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS IN THE RANGE OF 15-18 
SECONDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 
MAINLAND MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... 
INCLUDING THE S WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE WAVEWATCH 
AND SWELL GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT THESE SWELLS AND RESULTANT SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE SUN THROUGH MON.

$$
GR