000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
2205 UTC SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS ARE VERY WEAK AND THEY ARE 
NOT DISCERNIBLE ON THE 1800 UTC MAP. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS 
TIME OF THE YEAR A SECOND ITCZ IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. 
TWO DISTINCT INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES ARE SOMETIMES 
PRESENT IN SPRING. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...MAINLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL  
DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE 
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. ONCE AGAIN...SCATTEROMETER DATA 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE MON...WITH WINDS 
LIKELY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS LATE MON NIGHT INTO 
TUE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS MAY LAST INTO THU. 

W OF 110W...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA AT 
38N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 22N114W...AND TO SW OF THE AREA 
JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED 
ACROSS THE N WATERS...AND WINDS THERE ARE NORTHERLY AT 20 KT OR 
LESS BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN N SWELL 
N OF 24N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W...AND 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW 
SWELL ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 115W...AND NW OF LINE FROM 23N118W 
TO 20N130W TO 08N140W. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH 
MODEL GUIDANCES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HRS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS IN THE RANGE OF 15-18 
SECONDS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA... 
MAINLAND MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 
WAVEWATCH AND SWELL GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT THESE SWELLS AND 
RESULTANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN THROUGH MON.

$$
GR