000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1605 UTC SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 03N94W THEN RESUMES FROM 
03N113W TO 04N126W TO 02N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 119W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N114W SW TO DEVELOPING
CYCLONE AT 20N130W THEN S-SE TO 00N123W.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS 
CYCLONE OPEN UP TO A SHORTWAVE AS IT SLIDES E-NE INTO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  SHORT WAVE 
DEPARTURE FROM E PAC LEAVES MOSTLY TAME CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES.  MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MOST OF BASIN ALTHOUGH RIDGE 
CREST DOES ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ON 75 KT JET CORE
ACROSS 140W N OF 20N.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 01N96W MAINTAINS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
E OF ABOVE MENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXCEPT MINOR MOISTURE BURST
JUST OFF W COAST OF COLOMBIA UNDER MODERATE DIVERGENT FLOW.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH CENTER CENTER 1028 MB WELL N OF AREA
EXTENDS RIDGE S-SW INTO E PAC ENHANCING DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BASIN.  EVEN THE FRESH NW WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND AREA COVERAGE LEAVING ONLY 8-9 FT NW
SWELLS LINGERING IN E PAC.

...OUTLOOK...
WITH A FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND A BROAD WELL ANCHORED RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRANQUILITY OVER
THE E PAC.  NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WOULD BE A GAP WIND EVENT OVER
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN MID WEEK.

$$
WALLY BARNES