000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230241
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 01N97W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 01N97W TO 03N110W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION... 

E OF 110W...MAINLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL  
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS 
GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS 
OF 5-10 KT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED 15 KT 
NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO TAKE PLACE BY THE 
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

W OF 110W...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 1033 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 43N131W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N115W. 
WITH THE DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE AREA...A 
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED N OF 24N 
W OF 125W PER THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 20 
KT OR LESS.  
 
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR N PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10-13 FT FOUND N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W 
AND 131W. A NEW SET OF LONG-PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT. THIS SWELL 
EVENT WILL ALSO OVERLAP WITH THE AREA OF N-NW SWELL OVER THE N 
WATERS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS WITH 
PERIODS IN THE RANGE OF 18-20 SECONDS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MAINLAND MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM W TO 
E ACROSS THE N WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN...WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT 
SEAS N OF 24N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W BY LATE SUN.

$$
GR