000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC TUE MAR 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 05N93W THEN ITCZ TO 02N109W TO 
03N120W TO 01N133W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
FROM 111W TO 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CUTS DEEP SW FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO TO 17N115W THEN S-SE TO 00N108W.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES NE MEXICO/SE TEXAS READY TO START NEXT WEATHER 
EPISODE IN GULF OF MEXICO.  MEANWHILE IN THE E PAC...PATTERN
CONTINUES TAME ASWEAK RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF LONGWAVE BRINGS MINOR
AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC E OF 92W ALONG MONSOON
TROUGH PRODUCING ISOLATED AND DIMINISHING MODERATE CONVECTION.
ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH...BROAD RIDGE CREST ALONG 128W 
ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE E OF ITS AXIS.  SECOND LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 38N146W HAS 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 32N139W TO 20N149W.  TROUGH TILTS RIDGE
CREST EASTWARD AS CYCLONE SHIFT NE DEEPENING TROUGH.  

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 34N126W DRIFT SE MAINTAINING 
DRY AND STABLE PATTERN OVER MOST OF BASIN WITH GENTLE TO 
MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN.  SUBSIDING 8 FT SWELL FROM
PREVIOUS GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...TEHUANTEPEC
AND FONSECA LINGER IN MIDDLE OF BASIN WITH SLIGHT WESTWARD DRIFT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...NEW AND STRONGER 1030 MB HIGH PRES BEHIND ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT REPLACES CURRENT DISSIPATING ONE BY THU 
INCREASING NW-N WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE.  STRONG NW WINDS AND 9-11 FT SWELL EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO
WATERS S OF 30N.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND OPENS POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SET OF SHORT WAVES ENERGY
SURGES CROSSING MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLY BARNES