000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N82W TO 05N87W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 
02N95W TO 02N106W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
E PAC HAS TAMED DOWN SINCE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
CROSSED CENTRAL MEXICO INTO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING A 
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS...
COVERING FROM 105W TO 125W.  RIDGES OF BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH TRY
TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO BASIN...MINOR AMOUNTS E OF 105W AND
MUCH MORE ABUNDANT W OF 130W.  NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ENCROACHING INTO THE NW CORNER OF BASIN.  BUT SURFACE RIDGE...
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BLOCKS ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BY
FRONT.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN
EDGE OF BASIN TUE INTENSIFIES BY MID WEEK RETURNING E PAC TO A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.        

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH A TAMED ENVIRONMENT IN STORE...MAIN FEATURE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS LINGERING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
TEHUANTEPEC AND FONSECA WIND EVENTS.  AREA OF MERGED SWELLS 
MAINLY S OF 10N FROM 95W TO 117W TODAY DRIFTS W AND SUBSIDES
THROUGH TUE.  

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB WELL N OF AREA FORCE FRESH
TO STRONG NW BREEZE ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA N OF 31N...BUT 8-9
FT SWELLS ENCROACH TO 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W.  WINDS AND 
SWELLS SUBSIDE LATE MON AS HIGH PRES CENTER IS PUSHED E BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN SIDE.

$$
WALLY BARNES