000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 01N116W TO 03N129W TO 03N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS TROUGH
EXTENDING TO 14N118W.  ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED BY
CYCLONE INTO WESTERN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  E PAC REMAINS TAME OVERALL AS RIDGE ALOFT MAINTAINS 
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS W OF 110W.  BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER GUYANA EXTENDS AS FAR W AS 90W IN E PAC EXTENDING 
TAME CONDITIONS OVER BASIN.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ALLOWS WIND TO FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUN.  LOOKING AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND PULSES 
EXPECTED IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN FORCE
FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS DIMINISH
SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES CAUSING TIGHT GRADIENT OVER CARIBBEAN 
MOVES E AND RELAXES PRES GRADIENT EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
SOURCE OF GAP WINDS.

COMBINED ABOVE-MENTIONED WIND PULSES THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO
AND TEHUANTEPEC OVER PAST DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN LARGE AREA OF
NE-E SWELL S OF 12N AS FAR W AS 120W.

FRESH N WINDS OVER GULF OF PANAMA DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AS STRONG CARIBBEAN WINDS SUBSIDE. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 36N131W MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH 8-9 FT N SWELL 
ENCROACHING INTO BASIN AS FAR S AS 28N TONIGHT THROUGH MON 
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

$$
WALLY BARNES