000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 01N110W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE LATEST REPORTS FROM SALINA CRUZ MEXICO 
ALONG WITH AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
LESS THAN GALE FORCE. RAPIDLY MODIFYING TEMPERATURES OVER THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 
FURTHER DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOOKING 
AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND PULSES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE 
CONTRIBUTING TO FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE PLUME REACHING AS FAR AS 300 NM DOWNSTREAM 
TO THE WSW. 

THE COMBINED PULSES THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO OVER THE 
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL S 
OF 12N GENERALLY BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY 
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SUN.

AN OSCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FLOW OFF THE AZUERO 
PENINSULA OF PANAMA LAST NIGHT...BUT A SHIP OBSERVATION 
INDICATED THAT THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 KT. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF PANAMA INDICATE FRESH NE 
FLOW WILL MAKE A FINAL PULSE INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
15N115W. JET DYNAMICS ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES 
TO ENHANCE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. 

A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 
10N TO 20N W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT TO 
PROPAGATE AS FAR SOUTH AS 29N TONIGHT THROUGH MON BETWEEN 120W 
AND 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN