000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
ITCZ AXIS FROM 01N98W TO 03N1115 THEN RESUMES FROM 04N126W TO
02N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN PART OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS
TROUGH EXTEND S TO 08N110W THEN SE TO 00N96W.  MODERATE 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT JUST E OF CYCLONE BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 01N97W TO 09N86W 
UPLIFT WHAT LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE S OF 10N TO 
FORM ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS AXIS.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS LINGER OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE BY MIDDAY SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO DRIFTS E.  WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER LATE SAT TO A MODERATE
BREEZE.  

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALLOW WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS UNTO GULF OF
PAPAGAYO IN NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA ON THE BORDER WITH 
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR MAINLY EARLY MORNING SAT.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE GAP WINDS PROMPTS LARGE AREA
OF MERGED NE TO E SWELL S OF 14N E OF 120W.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF
PANAMA N WINDS SURGE TO A STRONG BREEZE FOR BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT
AND SAT THEN DIMINISHES TO GENTLE BREEZE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 33N132W PROMPTS FRESH
TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY 
NW SWELLS REACH NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF BASIN LATE IN THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.   

$$ 
WALLY BARNES