000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI MAR 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
ITCZ AXIS FROM 01N118W TO 04N128W TO 02N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA HAS TROUGH EXTEND S TO 07N106W THEN SE TO 00N96W.
MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 01N99W
TO 08N86W UPLIFT THE LITTLE TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FORM
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS AXIS.    


SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF 
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 33N130W IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TRADE WINDS NEAR THE ITCZ W OF 135W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH 
TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH IS PRODUCING SWELL TO 7 FT OVER THE AREA 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...BUILDING TO 8 FT IN N SWELL BY 
LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS LINGER OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MIDDAY SAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB
OVER GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS E.  WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER LATE SAT
TO A MODERATE BREEZE.  

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER SW
CARIBBEAN ALLOW FLOW THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS UNTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IN NICARAGUA AND GULF OF FONSECA ON THE ORDER WITH 
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR MAINLY EARLY MORNING SAT.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THESE GAP WINDS PROMPTS LARGE AREA
OF MERGED NE TO E SWELL S OF 14N E OF 120W.

WEAK TROUGH FROM 08N86W TO 03N93W TO 01N99W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 98W.

$$ 
WALLY BARNES