000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N81W TO 04N90W THEN ITCZ CONTINUE TO
00N104W.  ITCZ RESUMES FROM 04N124W TO 02N129W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SE OF MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED E ACROSS CONUS WITH VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE RIDING ITS W SIDE CURRENTLY OVER TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNS INTO CUT OFF CYCLONE WITH 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 04N114W.  UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CREST W OF CYCLONE HOLDS ITS GROUND AS SECOND LONG 
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN FRINGES OF BASIN WITH ITS 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.  RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER
1024 MB WHICH THEN BLOCKS ANY FURTHER EASTERN INTRUSION OF COLD
FRONT INTO E PAC.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT IS ADVECTED ON E SIDE
OF RIDGE CREST BUT MOVES INTO REGION OF DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED FROM IT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WEAKEN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATE SAT JUST TO DEEPEN IT AGAIN
AFTER FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL WINDS E OF 100W 
BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO DRIFTS E AND ALLOW WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
STORM FORCE WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHED EARLIER TODAY OVER GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALES REMAINING FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE
QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

ON THE OTHER HAND...AS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES E
CARIBBEAN GRADIENT TIGHTENS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. 
DOWNSTREAM FROM GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC SWELLS CAUSED
BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WIND EVENTS MERGE CREATING A REGION OF 
8-10 FT SEAS S OF 13N FROM 90W TO BEYOND 110W. 

APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRIEFLY INCREASE SE-S WINDS N OF 25N W OF 
135W TO A MODERATE BREEZE FRI BUT QUICKLY RETURN TO A GENTLE 
BREEZE AS COLD FRONT LOSES UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHIFT NE OF 
BASIN.   
  
$$
WALLY BARNES