000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 00N94W TO 01N106W.
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N108W TO 05N123W TO 02N137W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM NW OF AXIS E OF 89W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS AT 32N127W BRINGING DRY 
AND STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT S OF 24N W OF 115W.  VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SWINGS AROUND BASE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF GULF OF
MEXICO.  WHILE SHORT WAVE HAS NOT BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
...AND IF IT DOES IT WOULD BE WELL N OF EXPECTED POSITION...THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EFFECTIVELY FORCING GULF OF MEXICO 1029 MB
HIGH PRES CENTER FURTHER S AND INCREASED WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS
CHIVELAS PASS UNTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH STORM FORCE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
BACK TO GALE BY MORNING.  SIMILARLY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING TO GULF OF
FONSECA LATE IN THE PERIOD. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE UPPER LEVEL...BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN KEEPING IT DRY WHILE 
ADVECTED MOISTURE FLIES OVER ITS CREST ACROSS SW N ATLC.   

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 35N127W MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
NE BREEZE ACROSS E PAC N OF ITCZ W OF 120W.  WEAK COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING NW CORNER OF BASIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE S-SE WINDS
N OF 25N W OF 135W TO A MODERATE BREEZE TONIGHT AND THU BUT 
FRONT SWINGS MORE TO THE NE LATE THU PULLING WINDS AWAY WITH IT.

NE SWELLS LINGER S OF 20N W OF 120W FROM PREVIOUS FRESH TRADES
SUBSIDE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NEW AREA OF MERGING SWELLS
ARISE FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO EVENTS DISCUSSED
ABOVE.   
  
$$
WALLY BARNES