000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 01N93W.  ITCZ AXIS FROM 
03N110W TO 05N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF AXIS E OF 89W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...BROAD RIDGE CREST FROM 15N140W TO 32N132W MAINTAINS DRY 
AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER REGION W OF 119W.  SHARP LONGWAVE 
TROUGH DROPS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 09N121W 
THEN TO 04N93W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
ADVECTS NE UNTO CENTRAL MEXICO RIDING ON 40 KT JET CORE JUST SE 
OF TROUGH N OF 12N AND OVER CREST OF WEAK ANTICYCLONE RIGHT OVER 
NICARAGUA.  SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENHANCES 
MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION FROM 81W-87W S OF ANTICYCLONE.  

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATE OF WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPING 
ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY THU 
AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL CAA TO JET CORE AND MAKING ENERGY 
AVAILABLE TO ENHANCE PRESENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR STORM FORCE. 

ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 34N131W 
WEAKENS WED AND THU ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND 
AREA COVERAGE LATE THU.  BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF E PAC... 
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE ALOFT HELP GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES 
DISPLACE SE STRENGTHENING N-NE TRADES ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
A STRONG BREEZE LATE THU.                                       

HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB OVER SE CONUS MOVES INTO NE GULF OF 
MEXICO FORCED BY DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND  
ENHANCES N-NE WINDS ACROSS CHIVELA PASS...AS WELL AS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...INCREASING WINDS FUNNELING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO ALMOST STORM FORCE BY LATE THU 
 
$$ WALLY BARNES