000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 01N99W TO 04N112W 
THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 04N114W TO 05N126W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 
81W TO 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 97W TO 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...BROAD RIDGE CREST FROM 10N149W TO 32N133W MAINTAINS DRY 
AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER REGION W OF 121W.  SHARP LONGWAVE 
TROUGH DROPS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 10N120W 
THEN TO 04N92W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
ADVECTS NE UNTO CENTRAL MEXICO RIDING ON 40 KT JET CORE JUST SE 
OF TROUGH N OF 10N AND OVER CREST OF WEAK ANTICYCLONE RIGHT OVER 
NE COSTA RICA.  SMALL AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENHANCES 
MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION FROM 81W-87W.  

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATE OF WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPING 
ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THU AND 
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO JET CORE AND MAKING IT AVAILABLE 
TO ENHANCE PRESENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO NEAR STORM FORCE. 

ELSEWHERE AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 34N132W 
WEAKENS WED AND THU ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND 
AREA COVERAGE BY LATE THU.  BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF E PAC... 
AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE ALOFT HELP GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES 
DISPLACE SE STRENGTHENING N-NE TRADES ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
A STRONG BREEZE THU.                                       

HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 ME OVER SE CONUS MOVES INTO NE GULF OF 
MEXICO FORCED BY DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND  
ENHANCES N-NE WINDS ACROSS CHIVELA PASS...AS WELL AS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...INCREASING WINDS FUNNELING INTO GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO ALMOST STORM FORCE BY THU 
 
$$ WALLY BARNES