000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON MAR 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 02N91W TO 03N110W 
THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 05N128W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 37N132W EXTENDS SOUTH OF 30N... 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE PRES 
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO 
IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AS EVIDENCED BY 1650 UTC HI-RES ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 115W...EXCEPT FOR 
RESIDUAL AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS DOWNWIND FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. W OF 115W...THE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS 
IS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND SHRINKING IN SIZE. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT 
WINDS AND SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED TRADES 
N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 13N W OF 130W... 
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER W AND DIMINISH IN 
AREAL EXTENT THROUGH THU. 

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INDUCE GALE FORCE 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. 
N WINDS WILL RAPIDLY REACH 30 KT THEN INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE 
LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS MAY INCREASE EVEN 
FURTHER TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE EARLY THU MORNING. THE GRADIENT 
SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON THU...WITH GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY 
MIDDAY SAT.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL PULSE AT 15-20 KT THEN INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT HOURS BEGINNING EARLY WED.    

$$
MUNDELL