000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111608 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... AN ILL- DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN PANAMA/NW COLOMBIA WSW TO 07N84W TO 03N98W WHERE LOW LEVEL MODEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N116W TO 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. UPPER CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 124W WHERE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EVIDENT. AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT CUT OFF A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW FILLING NEAR 24N127W. IT NOW TRAILS AN UPPER TROUGH SSW TO 04N128W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DEPICTS THE AREA TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BRINGING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE REGION. OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO THE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...BROAD SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 106W AND THE TROUGH. RATHER FAST SW TO W UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS MEXICO AROUND THE BASE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE THINS OUT AS IT REACHES MEXICO WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 112W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO HELP MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE STREAMING NE TOWARDS MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED N OF THE REGION AT 37N131W SEWD THROUGH 32N129W TO NEAR 21N113W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURES TO ITS SW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL BELT REGION IS RESULTING IN TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 03N TO 24N W OF 113W WHERE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS ARE OCCURRING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING IN FORECASTING THIS AREA OF TRADES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM E TO W OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 9 FT MAINLY IN NEW SWELLS BY THEN. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RELATIVLEY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS S ACROSS SE MEXICO AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RELATED VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CHIVELA PASS AND GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT WHEN N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT. THESE WINDS THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO NEAR OR AT 40 KT BY EARLY WED. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE BEFORE SUNRISE ON THU. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON THU...WITH GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY MIDDAY SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS BEGINNING LATE TUE NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE