000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 11 2013 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N97W TO 05N115W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED NEAR 39N130W WITH A 
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE 
TRADES FROM 12N TO 21N W OF 115W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF 
NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN MON ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO SHRINK IN SIZE 
AND WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING TUE W OF 125W...WITH SEAS TO 
10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A THERMAL TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES 
GRADIENT THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF...PRODUCING 20-30 KT NW WINDS 
BETWEEN 23N-28N THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S ALONG THE 
EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE 
STRONG N WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING MON 
EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BY 
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE 
ON A DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY 
MORNING BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
SAT MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 45-50 KT WED NIGHT 
THROUGH THU MORNING...INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 40-45 KT THU 
NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.
   
$$
MUNDELL