000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 10 2013 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N92W TO 02N100W TO 04N113W TO 
02N127W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG HIGH PRES IS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED NEAR 36N130W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH NE TRADES FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 115W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN 
A MIX OF NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN MON ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO 
SHRINK...WITH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING TUE W OF 125W... 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELLS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A THERMAL TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES 
GRADIENT THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF...PRODUCING 20-30 KT NW WINDS 
BETWEEN 23N-28N THROUGH MON MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S ALONG THE 
EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE 
STRONG N WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING MON 
EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BY 
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE 
ON A DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY 
MORNING BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 40 KT THU MORNING.
   
$$
MUNDELL