000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 10 2013 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 02N99W TO 03N112W TO 
02N126W TO 01N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-122W...   
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-112W...AND WITHIN 60 NM 
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-103W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N107W TO A BASE AT 24N116W. UPPER 
CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR TO BE CONFINED OVER THE NE 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 24N AND E OF 125W. AN UPPER CYCLONE 
THAT CUT OFF A FEW DAYS AGO IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING NEAR 21N135W 
AS IT LIFTS NE. THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 
MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES NW FROM THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
14N116W TO 22N126W TO 32N134W AND NNE TO THE FAR PACIFIC NW 
REGION OF THE U.S. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN THE 
UPPER RIDGE WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATING INTO A 480 
NM WIDE PLUME THAT GRADUALLY EVAPORATES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD 
ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 
RESPONSE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY 1034 MB HIGH 
CENTER IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA AT 36N130W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N127W TO NEAR 23N112W. THE    
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO ITS SW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR NE TRADES WITH 
SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT OVER AN AREA DEFINED FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 
115W AND 121W WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT AS ANALYZED IN THE SEA 
STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING. OVER THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED FROM 06N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 121W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT THERE. AFTER MON 
MORNING...THE 1034 MB HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE 
AREAS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCRIBED WINDS TO SHRINK...WITH 
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING INTO TUE AT WHICH TIME THE 
FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS 20 KT OR LESS FROM 03N TO 20N W OF 123W 
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT MAINLY IN NE SWELLS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE THERMAL TROUGH 
JUST INLAND MEXICO AND THE RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BRING A 
TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF 
INDUCING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 23N TO 27N BEGINNING 
OVERNIGHT. DURING MON AFTERNOON THE GRADEINT WILL RELAX ENOUGH 
TO ALLOW FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL BEGIN WILL 
N WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ON MON AFTERNOON...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 
TO 20 TO 30 KT MON EVENING...AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BY 
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAXING AT OR VERY 
NEAR 40 KT ON THU MORNING.
   
$$
AGUIRRE