000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAR 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS COLOMBIA TO 0 1N82W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES ALMOST DUE W TO 02N116W...THEN DIPS SW TO 01N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N97W TO 04N106W TO 03N127W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N106W TO A BASE AT 24N116W...BASICALLY SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 112W AND 90W. AN UPPER CYCLONE THAT CUT OFF A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW FILLING NEAR 21N138W...BUT CYCLONIC ROTATION IS CURRENTLY WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID LEVELS AT 21N136W...AND IS SHIFTING N ERODING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE DESCRIBED NEXT. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 14N100W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW THROUGH 22N128W TO BEYOND 34N135W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH SOME THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATING INTO A 480 NM WIDE PLUME THAT GRADUALLY EVAPORATES AS IT MOVES E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 12105. THE NW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT...BUT MIXED N SWELL IS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 22N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE N SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 7 FT. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THE NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS TO 10 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 112W ON MON AND W OF 123W ON TUE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER INTERIOR OLD MEXICO THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR S AS 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 109W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W EARLY TODAY BUT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL BEGIN WILL N WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT ON MON AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT MON EVENING...AND MINIMAL GALE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MAXING AT 40 KT ON THU MORNING. $$ NELSON