000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 01N84W...THENCE ITCZ TO 
01N105W TO 02N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 37N130W WITH A RIDGE TO 24N120W 
TO NEAR 20N106W. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH OVER NW 
MEXICO AND NE PORTION OF RIDGE ARE PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS W 
OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SEAS TO 11 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX SUN...BUT TIGHTEN SW OF THE RIDGE...INCREASING NE 
TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 115W. 
THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH 
MON AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER NW MEXICO AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-
30 KT BY SUN EVENING BETWEEN 23N AND 30N. NW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED S OF 28N MON EVENING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 20 
KT OR LESS LATE MON NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 25 
KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W-88W THROUGH 
EARLY SUN...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS 
SUGGEST MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MON 
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE THU.
   
$$
MUNDELL