000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 9 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 03N88W...THENCE ITCZ TO 
01N96W TO 02N113W TO 01N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N130W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 
24N118W TO NEAR 18N107W. PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO AND NE PORTION OF RIDGE ARE PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW 
WINDS W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SEAS TO 11 FT. THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SUN...BUT TIGHTEN SW OF THE RIDGE 
TONIGHT...INCREASING NE TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS 
FROM 04N TO 21N W OF 110W. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED NE TRADES WILL 
GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH MON AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER NW MEXICO AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT BY EARLY SUN BETWEEN 22N AND 27N. NW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF S OF 28N MON MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN 
TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 25 
KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W-88W THROUGH 
EARLY SUN...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN ON MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS SUGGEST MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MON CONTINUING THROUGH 
SUNRISE THU.
   
$$
MUNDELL