000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 8 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 01N80W TO 01N100W TO 04N107W...THENCE 
ITCZ TO 06N113W TO 07N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 26N122W. A 
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN PORTION 
OF DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE GAP WINDS EXTENDING 
DOWNWIND FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. AREA OF MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS EVIDENT S OF 20N TO THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE W OF 130W. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ITCZ IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER A WIDE 
SWATH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N146W
TO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...PRODUCING ACTIVE CONVECTION AND GUSTY 
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY W OF 130W. 

GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
LESS THAN 30 KT AT THIS POINT...AND PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE NEAR A 
DIURNAL MINIMUM. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON...WHILE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITH A DIURNAL CYCLE... 
WITH MAX WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR SAN FRANCISCO WILL MOVE DIVE S AND 
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY FRI. W-NW 20-25 KT 
WINDS WILL MOVE S OF 30N IN FAR NE PORTION WEST OF BAJA...AND SW 
WINDS TO 25 KT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN TROPICS W OF 115W THROUGH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL