000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 7 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 00N95W AND 05N110W... 
THENCE ITCZ TO 08N121W TO 07N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 130W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 26N125W. 
OTHERWISE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE HOLDS SWAY OVER NORTHERN PORTION 
OF DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM PAST 6-8 HOURS SHOWS 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR GAP 
WINDS TO 30 KT EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS EVIDENT 
S OF 20N TO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 130W. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE 
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING ACTIVE CONVECTION 
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY W OF 130W. 

GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
BELOW GALE FORCE...AND THE GALE WARNING WAS DISCONTINUED AT 2100 
UTC. PAPAGAYO 20-30 KT WINDS EXTEND FAR DOWNWIND FROM THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 11N85W TO 09N89W. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
AFTERNOON...WHILE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITH A
DIURNAL CYCLE...MAX WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AT LEAST 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE DIVE SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS RANGING 
FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MOVE S OF 30N IN FAR NE PORTION WEST OF 
BAJA...AND SW WINDS TO 25 KT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. 
AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN DEEP TROPICS W OF 120W 
THROUGH SUN. EXPECT E-NE 20-25 WINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 115W. 

$$
MUNDELL