000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071540 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAR 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 02N95W AND 03N102W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N102W TO 07N123W...AND FROM 06N135W BEYOND 03N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N126W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 110W AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W AND FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N114W TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N122W TO 20N130W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST- SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N122W 26N129W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N128W TO 30N131W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS CONNECTED TO THE 32N128W 30N131W TROUGH...WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND LATER ON FRIDAY AND A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADE WINDS BY SATURDAY. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO COVER THE AREA FROM 08N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 110W BY SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N128W 7N133W IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 135W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GAP WINDS... THE 0404 UTC HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-40 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET TODAY. THE SEAS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA AS NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS SHOULD BE PULSATING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REACHING 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY NOW. NO SCATTEROMETER DATA OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVE THAT POINT YET. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FEET THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL BE FROM 08N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 93W. LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND EVENTS WILL COVER THE AREA. SEA HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N120W TO 08N130W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FEET WILL BE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 05N TO THE WEST OF 115W. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE TIME FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 T0 10 FT RANGE WITHIN THE AREA OF INCREASING TRADE WINDS. $$ MT