000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 7 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 04N90W TO 05N103W... 
THENCE ITCZ TO 07N119W TO 06N133W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA INTERRUPTED BY WEAKENING TROUGH FROM 32N120W TO 22N129W. 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N145W WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE THROUGH FRI 
THEN REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR 33N133W SAT THROUGH TUE. SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH WILL STEER LOW PRES SYSTEMS WELL NORTH OF DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR LOW PRES SYSTEM MENTIONED 
BELOW...AND SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS 
NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS 
AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BRINGING AN AREA 
OF 20-30 KT WINDS TO FAR NE PART OF FORECAST AREA...N OF 28N E 
OF 125W ON FRI AND SAT INCLUDING SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NO 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA OR SHIP OBS TO VERIFY WARNING BASED ON 
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES 30-35 KT WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT
LATE TONIGHT BUMPING UP AGAIN BRIEFLY TO 30-35 KT THU MORNING... 
THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE AGAIN BY THU EVENING. EXPECT 13-14 FT 
SEAS NEAR 14N95.5W TO WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT BY THU EVENING... 
AND SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS NE SWELL. LONG PERIOD 
10-13 FT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IS FOUND N OF 25N W OF 
125W...WITH 8-10 FT SEAS NW OF LINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
06N140W. 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL SPREAD FURTHER SE THU AND 
COVER AN AREA ROUGHLY N OF 09N W OF 115W.

EXPECT NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO PULSE AT AROUND 20 KT 
THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 90W... 
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THU MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO 
PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHEST WINDS NEAR 06Z.

$$
MUNDELL