000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 6 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 09N80W TO 03N90W TO 04N100W. ITCZ 04N100W TO 
07N128W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST
AREA IS INTERRUPTED BY WEAKENING TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT
BRUSHING PAST NW PORTION LAST NIGHT...FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH 31N122W TO 26N130W. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N146W
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE THROUGH THROUGH FRI...THEN REMAIN STATIONARY
NEAR 33N133W SAT THROUGH TUE. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL STEER LOW
PRES SYSTEMS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SUPPORT MODERATE-FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICS NORTH 
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BRINGING AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS 
TO NE PART OF FORECAST AREA...N OF 28N E OF 125W ON FRI AND SAT 
INCLUDING SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY FAILED TO SAMPLE THE 
AREA COVERED BY THE GALE WARNING...AND THERE WERE NO SHIP OBS... 
SO THE WARNING IS BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES 35-40
KT WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT LATE TONIGHT THEN BUMPING UP AGAIN TO 
30-35 KT THU MORNING...THEN DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THU EVENING.
EXPECT 15-16 FT SEAS NEAR 14N95.5W TO WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT BY
THU EVENING...AND SPREAD DOWNWIND FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS NE SWELL. 
LONG PERIOD 10-13 FT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DYING COLD FRONT IS
FOUND N OF 25N W OF 125W...WITH 8-10 FT SEAS NW OF LINE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 07N140W. 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS WILL SPREAD FURTHER 
SE THU AND COVER AN AREA ROUGHLY N OF 09N W OF 115W.

EXPECT NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO PULSE AT AROUND 20 KT 
THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 90W... 
THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THU MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO 
PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHEST WINDS NEAR 06Z.

$$
MUNDELL