000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N90W TO 04N102W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N102W TO 07N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 107W AND 
110W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS A FEW DAYS AGO IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL SPREADING 
DOWNWIND FROM ITS SOURCE REGION...NOW EXTENDING S OF LINE FROM 
10N95W TO 17N121W BETWEEN 95W AND 121W. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BRING A SHORT-LIVED 
GALE WIND EVENT FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z-15Z THU. 
THIS WILL GENERATE A NEW SET OF WIND WAVES THAT WILL SPREAD SW 
AS NE SWELL THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS BY 
LATE THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT BY FRI MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME 
ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT BOTH THU AND FRI MORNING AROUND 
1200 UTC.  

A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N111W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. AT 0600 UTC...THE 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 26N134W. THE 0610 UTC ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N122W TO 27N126W 
TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWS 
THE FRONT BRINGING SEAS TO 13 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS 
SWELL EVENT WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 05N W OF 110W BY 
THU NIGHT. 

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND IS ANALYZED FROM 
09N124W TO 4N129W ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP. A FEW SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS MEETS THE ITCZ. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
WWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
GR