000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N83W TO 4N94W. ITCZ FROM 4N94W 5N112W TO 
4N126W TO EQUATOR AT 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W-106W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IS N OF 25N W OF 125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN THE 
TROUGH N OF 20N W OF 125W. A 100-115 KT JETSTREAM IS AT THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA FROM 21N140W TO 20N126W THEN 
WEAKENS TO 75-80 KT INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 400 NM S OF THE JET E 
OF 126W. 

THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
WITCH WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING EARLY WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BRUSHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
32N134W TO 28N140W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. 
LARGE NW SWELLS TO 11 FT ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W.

ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO BELOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

$$
DGS