000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N94W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 04N94W TO 06N121W TO 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF TROUGH/AXIS BETWEEN 
90W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
125W AND 129W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AFTER A LONG-LIVED GAP WIND EVENT IN THE 
GULF THAT INCLUDED STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS...MARINE 
CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY MILD 
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE LARGE AREA OF 
SWELL FROM THE EVENT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT CONTINUES TO COVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 92W-120W S OF A LINE FROM 20N120W TO 
12N92W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO LIE FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. A NEW COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED WILL BRING A RETURN OF 
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED MORNING. SEAS 
WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 16 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT IN AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE 
ARE MIXING WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 8-1O FT SEAS FROM 05N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
WILL SHRINK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SEAS 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 0302 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA 
REACHING 4N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT HERE BY 
MIDDAY TODAY. 8-9 FT SEAS CURRENTLY DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA N 
OF 02N E OF 82W...BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 
WINDS DIMINISH.

A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 19N112W. TRADE WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WITH SEAS UNDER 8 FT OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 
FROM 30N129W TO 28N131 LATER TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN FROM 
30N121W TO 27N125W BY WED NIGHT. LARGE SWELL FROM THE NW FOLLOWS 
THE FRONT BRINGING SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THIS 
SWELL WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 07N W OF 115W BY WED 
NIGHT. 

A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 10N120W TO 
4N125W ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 7N. THE TROUGH WILL 
MOVE WWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
$$
GR