000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 03N92W TO 
04N104W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N104W TO 06N117W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIPS ELXU2 AND MTDU5 NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT 0000 UTC REPORTED WINDS UNDER 15 KT...SO THE 
LONG-LIVED WIND EVENT IN THE GULF HAS FINALLY ENDED. 
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AREA OF SWELL FROM THE EVENT WITH SEAS OVER 
8 FT CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 92W-119W S OF A 
LINE FROM 18N119W TO 12N92W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO LIE FARTHER E 
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. A NEW COLD 
FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON 
WED WILL BRING A RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 16 FT BY 
WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AN UNKNOWN SHIP NEAR 
10N92W REPORTED 22 KT WINDS FAR DOWNWIND NEAR 10N92W AT 0000 
UTC. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE ARE MIXING WITH SWELL FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO MAINTAIN AN 
AREA OF 8-11 FT SEAS...BUT THE PORTION OF THE SWELL S OF 05N 
EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. THE AREA OF STRONG 
WINDS WILL SHRINK AND THE MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO TUE...WITH A STRONG BREEZE MOST LIKELY 
TO BE FOUND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE 
FLOW OFF THE LAND ON TUE AND WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP A8NQ6 REPORTED 31 KT N WINDS NEAR THE 
COAST OF PANAMA AT 6.5N80W AT 0000 UTC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT HERE BY MIDDAY TUE. 8-9 FT SEAS CURRENTLY 
SPAN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 02N E OF 82W...BUT WILL SUBSIDE 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.

A POSITIVELY TILTED...WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM NE 
MEXICO TO NEAR 10N112W. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN 
STREAM UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS TAPPING 
INTO MOSITURE POOLED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
90W AMD 96W IN THE REGION WHERE THE VERTICAL LIFT AND AMPLE 
MOSITURE COINCIDE.

ANOTHER UPPER JET STRETCHES FROM 13N140W INTO NW MEXICO. 
MOISTURE PUMPED FROM THE ITCZ W OF THE AREA IS BEING TRANSPORTED 
BY THE JET. THE MOST ABUNDANT AREA OF MULTIPLE LAYER CLOUDS IS 
FOUND N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LIE IN THIS AREA.

A WEAK 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NEAR 32N127W. THE DEEP 
LAYER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WITH SEAS 
UNDER 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT 
IMPINGING ON THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM THE NW WILL GRADUALLY 
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. NW 
SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BROUGHT 
SEAS TO 10 FT IN NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 10N W OF 116W BY WED EVENING.
  
$$
SCHAUER