000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 02N99W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N99W TO 05N110W TO 06N120W TO 02N130W 
TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 126W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS HAVE DIMINISHED 
TEMPORARILY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AT 1800 UTC...SHIP A8DL8 
REPORTED 30 KT N WINDS AND 16 FT SEAS NEAR 13N94.5W WHILE SHIP 
ELXU2 REPORTED 19 KT WINDS AND 13 FT SEAS TO THE N NEAR 15N95W. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY EVENING AND MAXIMUM SEAS WILL 
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE GULF. MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE AREA 
OF N SWELL FOUND SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS OVER 8 FT 
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 93W-118W S OF A LINE FROM 18N118W 
TO 13N93W. THE 1650 UTC JASON2 PASS CONFIRMED THESE SEAS BETWEEN 
102W-109W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO LIE FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM 
THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. A NEW COLD FRONT SURGING 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED WILL BRING A 
RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED 
MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 15 FT BY WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY. THE 1600 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED WINDS 
TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE ARE MIXING WITH SWELL 
FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO 
MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N 
E OF 93W TO A LINE FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
AND MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
INTO TUE...WITH A STRONG BREEZE MOST LIKELY TO BE FOUND IN THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND ON 
TUE AND WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 1420 UTC ASCAT PASS 
CLIPPED THE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE FOUND DOWNWIND OF THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT HERE 
ON TUE MORNING. 8-9 FT SEAS CURRENTLY SPAN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
02N E OF 82W...BUT WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE WINDS 
DIMINISH.

A POSITIVELY TILTED...WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM NE 
MEXICO TO NEAR 10N112W. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A SOUTHERN 
STREAM UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS TAPPING 
INTO MOSITURE POOLED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS REFLECTED FROM 14N110W TO 05N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 08N TO 11N 
AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W IN THE REGION WHERE 
THE VERTICAL LIFT AND AMPLE MOSITURE COINCIDE.

A WEAK 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NEAR 33N128W. THE DEEP 
LAYER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT 
LEAST WED AFTERNOON. SWELL TO 8 FT IN THE NORMAL TRADE WINDS 
ZONE WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT 
IMPINGING ON THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FROM THE NW WILL GRADUALLY 
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. NW 
SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL 
BRING SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SWELL 
WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 
14N122W TO 08N140W BY MIDDAY WED.
  
$$
SCHAUER