000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041616 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON MAR 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 02N98W WHERE LOW LEVEL SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW FROM 02N98W TO THE BASE OF AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N111W...THEN TURNS DUE W TO 06N120W...AND FINALLY TURNS SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE S OF 03N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N86W TO 04N96W TO 08N106W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 04.5N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE HAS FLARED WITHIN 45 NM OF 11.5N109W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE UNDER A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N140W TO 27N122W. ...DISCUSSION... GAPS WINDS... MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 25 TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. DRAINAGE WILL TURN ON N WINDS AT 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING DIMINISHING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. A N SURGE INITIALLY AT 15 T0 20 KT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED. THIS NEXT EVENT WILL LIKELY MAX AT 40 KT ON WED AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE MORNING ON THU. EXPECT THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE TO PEAK AT 30 KT LATE THU NIGHT TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON FRI...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL REACH NEAR 08N92W TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF SWELL HAS PROPAGATED SE...S...AND SW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE NW SWELL COMPONENT IS MERGING ALONG 93W WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY A MINIMAL GALE EVENT ALSO OCCURRING IN/DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE N AND NE SWELL COMPONENTS HAVE PROPAGATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W...AND S OF THE EQUATOR TO 03S BETWEEN 93W AND 107W WHERE THE NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT WITH BE BRIEF WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH EARLY FRI... INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE FRI NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO AS FAR S AS 02N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS. THESE ENHANCED N WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON TUE AFTERNOON. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 110W WITH ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SAME AREA. NE AND NW LONG PERIOD SUBSIDING SWELL IS MIXING WITHIN THIS AREA RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT GENERALLY TO THE W OF 116W WITH THE AFFECTED AREA SHRINKING CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5 TO 10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT...WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS TODAY AND SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF 27N TUE AND WED REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL ONLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...BUT ADVECT A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL INTO THE NW WATERS DRIVING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 13 FT ALONG 29N EARLY TUE...WITH THE ARE AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS SHIFTING E ON WED...AND SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT ON WED NIGHT. $$ NELSON