000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040929 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAR 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 03N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 03N97W TO 05N116W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W... FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE THIRD STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS YEAR WAS CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA SUN MORNING. CURRENTLY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW GALE FORCE MIDDAY TODAY AND DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT THIS EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF N SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...S AND SW FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA COVERING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 115W AND RAISING SEAS UP TO 14 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT IS MERGING ALONG 92W WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND IS ALSO BEGINNING TO MEET UP WITH A NW SWELL TRAIN THAT COVERS MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 04/1800 UTC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A NEW SURGE OF NLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT INCREASING RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE (35-40 KT) EARLY ON WED MORNING. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 FT BY WED MORNING AND TO AROUND 16 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT EVENT WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND MIDDAY ON THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. A BRIEF GALE IS EXPECTED IN THIS GULF THIS MORNING DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO BRING SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATER TODAY BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 04/1800 UTC. GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS ARE ON INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 02N LATER TODAY BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE. A WEAK 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N130W EXTENDING A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 21N111W. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 135W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE REACHING THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF THE TRADES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH 30N140W THIS EVENING THEN WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH TUE EVENING WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. A NEW SWELL EVENT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. $$ GR