000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 03N95W TO 
04N106W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N106W TO 04N123W TO 
02N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W TO 100W AS WELL AS WITHIN 
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE MIDDAY MON AND DIMINISHING BELOW 
25 KT BY MON EVENING. MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE AREA OF N 
SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT 
IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER EVENTUALLY COVERING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC 
WATERS FROM S OF 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 119W BY MON NIGHT...WITH 
SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG NE BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF GALE IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS ON MON DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE WILL 
MIX WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW 
SWELL TO BRING SEAS TO 12-14 FT. WINDS AND MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND 
OF PAPAGAYO WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MON...BUT A STRONG BREEZE IS 
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP A8SG4 TRAVELING FROM 06N-07N NEAR 80W 
REPORTED WINDS AS HIGH AS 23 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT BETWEEN 
1800-0000 UTC. THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT 
AND PROPAGATE AS FAR S AS 02N BY MON EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS 
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE AREA FEATURES TWO POSITIVELY TILTED 
UPPER TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND ONE CLIPPING NW 
WATERS...BOOKENDING A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE FROM 32N110W TO 
16N120W. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO MOSITURE POOLED ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 100W...ENHANCING THE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-100W. THIS 
JET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL TUE...MAKING THIS A FAVORABLE 
REGION FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MON. AN UPPER JET ALSO LIES ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. IT IS PUMPING MOSTLY MID- TO 
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 12N W OF 120W. MULTIPLE LAYERS OF 
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LIKELY LIE IN THIS AREA...BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE UPPER 
FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND FURTHER DAMPENING 
THE RIDGE TO ITS E.

A WEAK 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NEAR 35N131W...AND THE DEEP 
LAYER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT 
LEAST TUE EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NW SWELL TRAIN WITH 
PERIODS TO 21 SECONDS REACHED CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND IS 
BEGINNING TO MEET UP WITH NE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
BY TUE MORNING...THE AREA OF NW SWELL OVER 8 FT CURRENTLY FOUND 
OVER WATERS N OF 03N W OF 118W WILL SUBSIDE. A NEW NW SWELL 
TRAIN WILL ENTER FAR NW WATERS MON EVENING AND BRING SEAS TO THE 
8-13 FT RANGE BY TUE MORNING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD. 
  
$$
SCHAUER