000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032155 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 03 2013

CORRECTED FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 04N86W TO 
02N94W TO 04N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N110W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 
60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 98W AS WELL AS WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A 
STRONG GALE ACCORDING TO THE 1620 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FALLING BELOW GALE 
FORCE MIDDAY MON AND DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY MON EVENING. 
MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE AREA OF N SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM 
THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
EVENTUALLY COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM S OF 15N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 119W BY TUE...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E 
DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 1620 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED THE 
DOWNWIND EDGE OF THE STRONG BREEZE FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
NEAR 06N92W. OTHERWISE...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE DATA HERE TODAY.  
A BRIEF GALE IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING 
HOURS ON MON DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE 
LAND. WIND WAVES AND NE SWELL HERE WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO BRING SEAS 
TO 12-13 FT DURING THE GALE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S 
OF PAPAGAYO. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. WINDS 
AND MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON 
MON...BUT A STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST TUE 
AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP A8SG4 TRAVELING FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 
80W-80.5W REPORTED WINDS AS HIGH AS 22 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT 
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE IS 
BELIEVED TO BE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
TUE MORNING. SEAS OVER 8 FT AND PROPAGATE AS FAR S AS 02N BY MON 
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE AREA FEATURES TWO POSITIVELY TILTED 
UPPER TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND ONE CLIPPING NW 
WATERS...BOOKENDING A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE FROM 32N110W TO 
20N120W. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO MOSITURE POOLED ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 100W...ENHANCING THE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-98W. THIS 
JET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL TUE...MAKING THIS A FAVORABLE 
REGION FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MON. AN UPPER JET ALSO LIES ON THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. IT IS PUMPING MOSTLY MID- TO 
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 10N W OF 125W. MULTIPLE LAYERS OF 
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS LIKELY LIE IN THIS AREA...BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE UPPER 
FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND FURTHER DAMPENING 
THE RIDGE TO ITS E.

A WEAK 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH LIES NEAR 34N132W...AND THE DEEP 
LAYER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT 
LEAST MIDDAY TUE. THE LEADING EDGE OF A NW SWELL TRAIN WITH 
PERIODS TO 21 SECONDS HAS REACHED CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND 
WILL MEET UP WITH NE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT. 
BY MON EVENING...THIS AREA OF NW SWELL OVER 8 FT WILL SHRINK 
SOUTHWESTWARD CONSIDERABLY AS THE SWELL DAMPENS. A NEW NW SWELL 
TRAIN WILL ENTER FAR NW WATERS MON EVENING AND BRING SEAS TO THE 
8-13 FT RANGE BY MIDDAY TUE. 
  
$$
SCHAUER