000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 03N86W TO 01N92W TO 
04N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 04N110W TO 02N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 2.5N101W.

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0014 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL 
WIND BARBS OF 45 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWN 
STREAM TO NEAR 13N. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 30 KT WINDS REACHES 
11N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE 
EXPECTED AROUND 1200 UTC WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN 
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY...FALL BELOW GALE FORCE MON MORNING...AND 
DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF N SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...S...AND SW FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL MERGE ALONG 92W WITH THE NE 
SWELLS GENERATED BY STRONG NE WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY BLOWING 
THROUGH THE GULF FONSECA AND INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. LOOKING AHEAD...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NEXT 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT WITH 
GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WED MORNING. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE 0346 UTC HI RESOLUTION ASCAT 
PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20 TO 30 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF FONSECA WITH THE 20 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR AS 11N AND 
E OF 91W. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WHERE THEY WILL ALSO REACH 30 KT. WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF FONSECA LATER TODAY... 
BUT IT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A BRIEF GALE IS 
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MON MORNING DURING THE PERIOD 
OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. WIND WAVES AND SWELL HERE 
WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SW SWELL TO BRING SEAS TO 12-14 FT LATER TODAY TO A LARGE AREA S 
OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. WINDS AND MAXIMUM SEAS DOWNWIND OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MON.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 
OVER 8 FT AND PROPAGATE AS FAR S AS 04N BY MON NIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH 
PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING FROM 
27N135W TO BEYOND 24N140W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS NOTED 
PER SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 20N W OF 110W. A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT 
TRADE WINDS IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 137W. THE 0706 UTC 
ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS...A NEW HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE 
FORECAST REGION NEAR 35N130W RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE OF THE 
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 18N W OF 135W.

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 22 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THIS SWELL WILL MEET UP WITH NE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY SUN NIGHT. A NEW NW SWELL TRAIN WILL ENTER FAR NW 
WATERS MON EVENING AND QUICKLY BRING SEAS TO THE 8-11 FT RANGE. 
  
$$
GR