000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT MAR 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 06N87W TO 03N94W TO 03N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N105W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE CURRENTLY FOUND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES IN THE GULF...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE COMMENCED. WINDS AT SALINA CRUZ WERE N AT 35 KT AT 1800 UTC. WINDS INLAND ARE TYPICALLY CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE MAXIMUM FUNNELED WINDS OVER THE WATER HERE. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE MID 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL MIXING EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE EVENT AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE AS A RESULT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUN AND BELOW 25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE AREA OF N SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER EVENTUALLY COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM S OF 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 116W BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...FONSECA...AND PANAMA. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT S TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN. A BRIEF GALE IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS ON SUN DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. WIND WAVES AND SWELL HERE WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TO BRING SEAS TO 13 FT ON SUN. WINDS AND MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MON. GULF OF PANAMA...A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL COMMENCE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER 8 FT AND PROPAGATE AS FAR S AS 03N BY MON AFTERNOON. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE AREA FEATURES TWO POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ONE CLIPPING NW WATERS...BOOKENDING AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 120W. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO MOSITURE POOLED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 100W AND PULLING IT NORTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 101W FROM 07N TO 16N AS A RESULT. THIS JET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE...MAKING THIS A FAVORABLE REGION FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERN TROUGH IS REFLECTING A SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 10N140W TO 03N142W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED ALONG THIS TROUGH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAKING THE UPPER FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND DAMPENING THE RIDGE TO ITS E. THE 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N130W. THE HIGH HAS BEEN IMPEDED ON BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W...WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY SUN...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. TRADE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST MON AFTERNOON. NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 21 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SWELL WILL MEET UP WITH NE SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. BY MON...THE AREA OF NW SWELL OVER 8 FT WILL SHRINK TO W OF 130W AS THE SWELL DAMPENS. $$ SCHAUER