000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAR 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 07N77W TO 06N90W...THEN DIPS SW TO 03N98W AND CONTINUES W TO 04N106W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ WIGGLES W BETWEEN 03N AND 04N TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 04N92W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N98W TO 10N102W...WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINES FROM 04N108W TO 05N123W...AND FROM 03N129W TO 07N136W. ...DISCUSSION... GAPS WINDS... A STRONG GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE AT STORM STRENGTH THROUGH SUNRISE SUN... DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY ON SUN. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SUN NIGHT...EXPECT ONE FINAL SURGE AT 30 TO 35 KT IN THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND SUNRISE ON MON...WITH GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY NOON ON MON. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 25 KT WINDS WILL REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W ON SUN AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE...S...AND SW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE NW SWELLS WILL MERGE ALONG 92W WITH NE SWELLS ON SUN GENERATED BY STRONG NE WINDS THAT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 105W LATE SUN NIGHT RESULTING SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE S PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 05S BETWEEN 93W AND 110W ON MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD S TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH NE WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF LINE FROM 09N85W TO 05N92W BY SUN MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE BRIEFLY TO A MINIMAL GALE DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN GULF ON FONSECA LATE MON BUT NOT TILL LATE WED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING RESULTING IN 20 TO 30 KT N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N79W TO 04N82W ON MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 07N. THESE N WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON TUE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WED MORNING. SO THE NEXT WINDOW FOR CROSSING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN LATE MON AND LATE TUE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT...OBSERVED THIS MORNING IN THE LONG FETCH GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 27N. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY ON SUN. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM 23N140W TO 27N137W WITH NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT...SEAS 11 TO 13 FT...ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH INTERMITTENT MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE W OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N130W TO 19N107W. SURFACE WINDS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 112W WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. $$ NELSON