000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N86W TO 04N108W. ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 04N108W TO 05N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 
91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 125W...AND N OF AXIS W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0408 UTC HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL 
STORM FORCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A STRONG 
GALE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 25 KT WINDS 
WILL REACH AS FAR AS 08N ON SUN. MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE 
AREA OF N TO NE SWELL PROPAGATING DOWN STREAM OF THE GULF THAT 
WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER EVENTUALLY COVERING THE 
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W BY SUN 
NIGHT. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE 
THE THIRD STORM FORCE WIND EVENT SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN 
TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA OVERNIGHT SAT 
NIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT S TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN. WIND 
WAVES AND SWELL GENERATED IN THIS AREA WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AND BRING SEAS TO 12 FT ON SUN. LOOKING AHEAD... 
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO A MINIMAL 
GALE JUST DOWN STREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY MON MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 0412 UTC HI RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BETWEEN 23N AND 28N. N SWELL IS PROPAGATING FROM THE GULF INTO 
THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR ITS MOUTH...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT REACHING 
AS FAR S AS 18N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER 
TODAY.  

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N137W TO 22N140W TO A 1014 MB 
LOW PRES LOCATED W OF AREA NEAR 16N144W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE W OF AREA IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF 
20-25 KT E-SE WINDS FROM 17N TO 25N AND E OF TROUGH AXIS TO 
135W.  

A 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 38N128W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE 
FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N112W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE 
WINDS SUN NIGHT AS A NEW HIGH PRES DEVELOPS JUST N OF AREA NEAR 
33N130W. 

REGIONAL WATERS ARE MAINLY DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL W 
OF 110W. ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL...WAVE PERIOD BETWEEN 19 TO 22 
SECONDS...IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT W OF 135W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY SUN THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN TO 11 FT WITHIN THE 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BY SUN NIGHT.   

$$
GR