000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N101W...THEN ITCZ TO 
05N114W TO 07N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W
AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA HAS AXIS FROM 42N128W TO 36N135W 
TO 33N148W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PREVAILS 
OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...WITH FRESH NE TRADE 
WINDS DOMINATING THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0710 UTC SHOWED AREA OF ENHANCED 25-30 KT 
NE WINDS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 138W AND 144W. GOOD COVERAGE 
FROM ALTIMETER PASSES BETWEEN 0400 AND 0900 UTC SHOWED VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z WW3 MODEL FORECASTS...SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE 
IN 06Z AND 12Z WW3 MODEL INITIALIZATION. 

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER NW AND CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN AND TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. HIGH-RES ASCAT PASS 
AT 0355 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG KT NW WINDS S OF 27N IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXTENDING S OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 22N. 

EXPECT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER 
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ...AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TYPICAL 
GAP WIND HOT SPOTS SUCH AS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET...20 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRI EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL