000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N86W TO 07N90W TO 05N102W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N102W TO 
08N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER NW AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION...AND 
PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO STEMMING FROM 1000 MB 
LOW PRES NEAR 21N99W. EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION/COASTAL ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS IN THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 8-11 FT WERE 
MEASURED BY A 1720 UTC ALTIMETER PASS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF LULL IN THE 
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 
FEW HOURS...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID 30 KT AGAIN AFTER 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...DIMINISHING EARLY TUE MORNING. A GALE WARNING 
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N 
THROUGH THEN.

1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 39N133W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH 
THROUGH 32N130W TO 24N120W TO 13N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S 
AND SW OF THIS RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES FROM 09N TO 
15N W OF 130W. SEAS OF 9-11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE 
COINCIDENT WITH THESE WINDS AS SAMPLED BY A 1910 UTC ALTIMETER 
PASS...WITH A SURROUNDING AREA OF 8-9 FT MIXED SWELL EXTENDING 
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF 
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW REGION OF THE U.S. NEW 
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 33N145W BY TUE EVENING
...STRENGTHENING THROUGH MID-WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO EXPAND 
AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...PANAMA...AND 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE MORNING. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF SPURT OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS 
COMMENCING TUE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. 

BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STORM FORCE 
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE LATTER HALF OF 
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN INDICATES 
60-70 KT WINDS AT 925 MB. THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA ALSO 
LIGHT UP AT THE SAME TIME.

$$
LEWITSKY