000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 01N79W TO 07N85W TO 04N95W TO 
05N112W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
05N112W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 
89W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 
109W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER NW AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN A STRONG SURFACE 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION...AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON 
HIGH RESOLUTION/COASTAL ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG 
TO GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE ESTIMATED IN THE AREA OF 25-35 
KT WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A LARGE 
AREA OF SOLID 30 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY TUE MORNING. 
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
23N TO 27N THROUGH THEN.

1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 39N134W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH 
THROUGH 32N130W TO 24N120W TO 12N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S 
AND SW OF THIS RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES FROM 08N TO 
16N W OF 127W...AND ALSO N OF 19N W OF 130W AS INDICATED BY 
RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 9-11 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE COINCIDENT WITH THESE WINDS...WITH A 
SURROUNDING AREA OF 8-9 FT MIXED SWELL EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THE RIDGE 
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE 
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW REGION OF THE U.S...AND FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES WILL ONLY COVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 130W BY TUE 
AFTERNOON. NEW 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 34N141W 
BY TUE AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING THROUGH MID-WEEK ALLOWING FOR 
TRADES TO EXPAND AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...PANAMA...AND 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MID-WEEK 
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF SPURT OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS 
COMMENCING TUE EVENING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY WED AFTERNOON. 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STORM FORCE 
WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE LATTER HALF OF 
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA ALSO LIGHTING UP THEREAFTER.

$$
LEWITSKY