000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 02N78W TO 02N80W TO 06N82W TO 
07N86W TO 03N108W TO 04.5N112W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... 
CONTINUING ON TO 05N116W TO 04N121W TO 06N129W TO 04.5N134W TO 
BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 91W... 
AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 103W AND 112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSIST OVER NW AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN A STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE PACIFIC...BUILDING HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION...AND A DEEPENING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT HIGH 
RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN 0415 AND 0500 UTC 
SHOWED STRONG N-NW WINDS 25-35 THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE RISEN TO 
10-11 FT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A LARGE 
AREA OF SOLID 30 KT THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE 
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUE MORNING. A GALE 
WARNING THUS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 
28N. 

A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH 
THROUGH 27N120W TO 15N109W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S AND SW OF 
THIS RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH 
TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES FROM N OF 07N TO A LINE FROM 27N140W TO 
12N127W....WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SHRINK TO SW PORTIONS OF THE 
THE AREA BY WED MORNING...WHILE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS 
WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...LARGE NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS 
9-13 FT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 
133W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 8-11 
FT BY THIS EVENING. A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL OVERTAKE THIS 
SWELL...COVERING THE NW CORNER FROM 30N120W TO 15N140W BY TUE 
EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...PANAMA...AND 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS 
WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF SPURT OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WATERS COMMENCING TUE EVENING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING WED. BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK...STRONG RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR EASTERN MEXICO 
AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION MAY INDUCE MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WINDS LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING