000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N85W TO 04N91W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 
06N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP OVER FAR NW MEXICO 
BETWEEN A RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUILDING 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION...AND BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NW MEXICO NEAR 
30N111W. AFTERNOON HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA/NEAR 
COASTAL WIND VECTORS INDICATED SEVERAL 30-34 KT WIND BARBS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WITH SURROUNDING 20-30 KT BARBS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN FORECASTING SOLID 30 KT IN THIS SAME 
AREA...AND WITH THE ADDITION OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE 
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. INTERESTINGLY 
A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY/DIAGNOSTIC TOOL DID NOT INDICATE GALE 
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE EVENT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE LIKELY 
SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 26N THIS EVENING...THEN WILL REACH TO 25N BY 
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 00 UTC 
TUE...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXES. MEANWHILE...SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL 
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS... EVENTUALLY SPILLING OUT S OF 23N ON MON 
MORNING.

WEAKENING 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 36N143W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH 
THROUGH 32N131W TO 22N116W TO 16N105W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW 
OF THIS RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 127W. THE HIGH 
AND RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SHRINK TO THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12N W 
OF 135W BY TUE EVENING.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING 
THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER LARGE 10-15 FT NW SWELL REMAINS 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. THIS SWELL 
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-11 FT BY MON EVENING. A NEW SET OF NW 
SWELL WILL OVERTAKE THE OLD SET...COVERING THE NW CORNER FROM 
30N120W TO 15N140W BY TUE EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...PANAMA...AND 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS 
WEEK...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF SPURT OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WATERS COMMENCING TUE EVENING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING WED. BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK...STRONG RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR EASTERN MEXICO 
AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION MAY INDUCE MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WINDS LATE FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

$$
LEWITSKY