000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 05N90W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 
04N95W TO 06N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 99W AND 102W...AND 
ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 111W AND 119W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP OVER FAR NW MEXICO 
BETWEEN A RIDGE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUILDING 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION...AND BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NW MEXICO NEAR 
30N113W. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA/NEAR 
COASTAL WIND VECTORS INDICATED SEVERAL 30-34 KT WIND BARBS IN 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WITH SURROUNDING 20-30 KT BARBS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN FORECASTING SOLID 30 KT IN THIS SAME 
AREA AND WITH THE ADDITION OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA...HAVE 
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. 
INTERESTINGLY A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY/DIAGNOSTIC TOOL DID NOT 
INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE EVENT. THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 26N THIS EVENING...THEN TO 25N BY 
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE MON 
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY RELAXES. MEANWHILE...SEAS OF 8-
11 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS... EVENTUALLY SPILLING OUT S OF 
23N ON MON.

1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 35N141W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 
32N132W TO 22N118W TO 12N96W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THIS 
RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG NE-E TRADES FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 126W AND FROM 23N TO 28N 
W OF 130W. THE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS WEEK 
ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SHRINK 
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE AREA FROM 09N TO 13N W OF 129W BY TUE 
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W 
AND 130W AS SAMPLED BY RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES...WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND 
RIDGE IS ALSO TIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL OF 10-15 FT COVERS THESE 
SAME WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE LARGE NW SWELL 
GRADUALLY DECAYS TO 8-11 FT BY MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...PANAMA...AND 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF SPURT OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS TUE 
NIGHT...QUICKLY DIMINISHING WED. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...STRONG 
RIDGING ALONG INTERIOR EASTERN MEXICO AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION MAY INDUCE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS LATE FRI 
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

$$
LEWITSKY